I’ll provide you some background information on the theory before getting too deep into it. In 1985, the NBA held the first ever draft lottery. The consensus #1 pick at the time was Georgetown star Patrick Ewing. The Knicks at the time had the third best odds to win the lottery, but the got “lucky” and ended up with the #1 pick. The popular theory involves the NBA wanting its future star to develop in a big market like New York. The plan to rig the lottery involved freezing the Knicks envelope in the ball that the teams were picked out of, so NBA commissioner David Stern could feel around and find the cold one. There is also another theory that the Knicks envelope had a bent corner so Stern could identify it. Sounds like something an angry fan would make up after their team doesn’t win the lottery after a long, terrible season, but a conspiracy to keep ratings high is more interesting, so I’m going to try and provide 3 pieces of evidence that the lottery wasn’t just rigged in 1985; but it has been rigged multiple times in the years since.
1.David Stern. Stern was known for being willing to do anything for ratings. He is infamous for loving big market teams. The NBA also had a massive drug scandal at the time and the NBA really wanted people to stop talking about it so they introduced the lottery. After the lottery, he was interviewed by reporters and said : “We were very pleased with the lottery” and “interest was great. People are talking about the lottery instead of drugs.” Essentially, he is saying that the goal was accomplished in getting sports fans to discuss the NBA, without drugs being mentioned.
- Derrick Rose in 2008 The main theory surrounds Pat Ewing, but why stop with just one rigged lottery? It could’ve happened again! For example, Cleveland winning the LeBron James lottery in 2003 has been questioned, but I wouldn’t question it too much, despite LeBron seeming to believe the theory. Cleveland had the best odds to win the lottery that season. The real example of the NBA rigging the lottery to bring a superstar to their home town is Derrick Rose to the Bulls in 2008. The Bulls had the 8TH best odds to win the lottery in 2008, but they won it anyway, giving Chicago a hometown hero, and their heir to Michael Jordan. It just seems too good to be true.
- Why would they do this?
Why would the NBA do this? It’s simple. Whenever a historically notable franchise like New York, Chicago, or San Antonio has had a period of little success, the NBA can provide them a star to keep them on top, and ratings high. In 1985, the Knicks were a big market team that hadn’t had a star since Walt Frazier in the 70s. In 2008, Chicago had been in a drought since Michael Jordan’s retirement, and the NBA needed fans from the area to reinvest. In 2023, the top prospect was French superstar Victor Wembanyama. San Antonio was a team that had already had a French superstar in Tony Parker. The Spurs already had French fans, so why not send Wembanyama to San Antonio? They also fit the “historically successful, recently terrible” mold like the Knicks and Bulls.
What if the lotteries weren’t “rigged”
To say that any of the discussed lottery picks going differently would change NBA history is an understatement. If the Indiana Pacers, who had the best odds to get Patrick Ewing, won the lottery, we would’ve seen a Reggie Miller- Patrick Ewing pairing in the 90s. That duo would have contended with Jordan’s Bulls, changing the NBA completely. Miami winning in 2008 would’ve had an even bigger impact. There are two options on what would have happened. 1. LeBron and Chris Bosh still join Miami and the early 2010s Heat are even more dominant, or 2. LeBron and Bosh never join the Heat, completely altering the landscape of the 2010s NBA.
If this theory is true, who wins the 2025 lottery?
If this theory is true, who would the NBA rig the 2025 lottery for? 2025’s top prospect is Duke forward Cooper Flagg. A few teams could have a chance, but the three teams that fit the requirements best are San Antonio, Chicago, and Philadelphia. Chicago still hasn’t been successful since the 90s despite the NBA rigging the 2008 draft for them, so they are in contention. The Spurs have Victor Wembanyama from the 2023 draft, but they haven’t won so why not pair him with Flagg? The Sixers have lots of star power, but have failed to deliver, so the NBA sends Cooper Flagg to Philly to power them to the NBA finals for the first time since 2001. The 2025 lottery will be held on May 12th, when we will see if another season can be added to the list of questionable drafts.
