In the late 20th century, scientists panicked over the concept of overpopulation. The human race was multiplying too quickly, and many feared that Earth’s natural resources wouldn’t be able to sustain such a massive number of people.

Twenty years later, and the concern, especially in more developed countries, has now significantly shifted from overpopulation to underpopulation. Why is this the case?

Well, for starters, the idea of overpopulation as a whole has been challenged due to recent scientific developments and discoveries. The emergence of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) has reduced the fear of global famine since these can increase crop productivity and outputs, helping feed a growing population. 

Additionally, the idea that we would eventually reach a maximum capacity in terms of other natural resources is also fading. Although having more people leads to more resources consumed, one also must consider that in general, a larger population correlates with more technological advancements. If our population started to grow at exponential rates, there would certainly be innovative people within that population that would figure out new ways to be more efficient with the Earth’s finite resources. 

Therefore, if the concern is all about resource management, then what’s the problem with underpopulation? To answer that question, we have to look into the economic consequences of underpopulation. 

To start, low birth rates cause problems for the economy on a broader, general scale. Capitalist economies are built off of a supply-and-demand relationship between the consumer and the worker. If there are fewer people being born, then in the future there will be fewer workers and fewer consumers, leading to an overall economic slowdown. 

On a more specific note, the age of the population plays a crucial role in the economy. In most countries around the world, there is some form of protection for retirees. People pay into a program, such as Social Security in the United States, so that when they retire they are then supported financially by their government. This system is built on an interplay between generations. The younger generation’s labor and tax dollars serve to financially support the older retired generations, with the expectation that when that younger generation eventually retires, the following generation will support them. However, when the population is continuously becoming older due to low birth rates and underpopulation, this system struggles to keep up. 

Let’s take Japan, for example. While the country had a booming economy three decades ago, its economy has since slowed down tremendously due to a significant portion of the current population being elderly. There aren’t enough young people working in order to support the older people while also maintaining economic growth. Analysts have noted this same trend in countries across Europe and Asia. Estimates vary, but recent statistics indicate that half of the world’s population lives in a country that is below the replacement rate between one generation and the other. Part of the reason why China rescinded its One-Child Policy is to curb its artificially low birth rate and increasingly aging population. According to recent U.S. census data, our own country has also flatlined in terms of population growth, indicating that we are barely scraping or even slightly below the replacement rate. 

Now, you may be wondering what has been the reason for the sudden and sharp drop in birth rates. The primary reason is the increased cost and standard of living across the globe. Whereas two centuries ago, it was economically desirable to have as many kids as possible so that they could help work for the family, raising a kid today will set a family back hundreds of thousands of dollars, with no immediate return on investment. Combine this with the fact that birth control and abortions make it easier than ever to prevent unplanned pregnancies, and it becomes clear why birth rates are declining. 

Lower birth rates are only part of the problem though. On the backside of things, people are living longer than ever before due to advancements in medical technology. This exacerbates the economic problems discussed previously. Programs like Social Security were set up almost a century ago, during a time when birth rates were much higher and life expectancy was much lower. Now, the entire system is out of balance, because elderly people are being supported by retirement programs for significantly longer than was originally intended, and the base of young workers that is supposed to be supporting them is severely reduced. 

So, how do we combat the effects of underpopulation on our country’s economy? The answer is complicated. On the one hand, these elderly people have been paying into social security programs for their entire lives. It’s not as if the government can suddenly just cut social security spending and leave all these retirees without their earned retirement funds. At the same time though, due to the stagnation of the global economy, the U.S government does not have the money to fund these social programs without incurring more debt. Countries have to restore the long-term balance of their age groups in order to cure this problem. Logically, the simplest way that the United States would be to increase the number of immigrants that we allow into the country. The U.S needs young workers right now, and yet there are thousands of young people sitting at our borders that could make a positive impact on our economy. Unfortunately, immigration is a highly political subject, so implementing this solution would not be as easy as it sounds. The only other way that we could increase our workforce other than through immigration would be to somehow incentivize families to have more children. This could artificially boost our younger population, but it begs the question of how we could encourage large families and more children. Offering financial assistance to families in order to reduce the cost of raising children would further the issue of the government lacking the funds to properly support its entire population.

Politicians hammer on issues such as healthcare, gun rights, and climate change, but eventually, they will have to address the impending plight of underpopulation that is facing countries around the world.