Midterm Elections are always very exciting events. They can act as a referendum of the incumbent President, or as a sign that the nation wants the government to head in a new direction. The 2022 Midterm Elections, however, are a particularly unique set of elections. The Democratic Party, headed by President Joe Biden, currently holds a trifecta in the federal government, meaning they control the Presidency, the House of Representatives, and the Senate. However, this trifecta is very fragile, as they hold a narrow majority in the House and a 50-50 split in the Senate with Vice-President Harris acting as a tie-breaker. This means that for both the Democrats and the Republicans, the 2022 Midterm Elections are going to be crucial in determining who controls the legislative branch and whether President Biden can continue to pass most of his agenda without many Republican contributions. 

In the Senate,  a net loss of only one seat for the Democrats would mean a Republican majority. Although the midterms are shaping up to have a lot of competitive races such as in Wisconsin, Georgia, Arizona, and North Carolina, the most competitive Senate race that will take place is, in my opinion, in Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania Senator Pat Toomey, a Republican, announced he will not seek re-election for another term in the Senate, leaving an open seat that Democrats and Republicans will invest massive amounts of money and effort to win. The “swing-state” nature of our state means that candidate quality will be a massive determiner on who wins the seat, meaning both parties will like to recruit the candidate who will give them the best chance of winning. Thus, here is my personal list of the candidates each party could nominate that would give them the best chance of winning the Pennsylvania Senate election in 2022.

Best Candidate for Democrats: Madeleine Dean

Congresswoman Madeleine Dean, an Abington Senior High School graduate and our current House Representative, would give the Democrats the best chances of winning the Pennsylvania open seat. Madeleine Dean represents an almost entirely suburban area, and currently, winning big in the Philadelphia suburbs is key for a Democrat statewide victory. We saw this in the 2020 Presidential Election, where President Biden amassed double-digit victories in suburban counties like Montgomery County, Delaware County, and Chester County. Through these victories, he was able to overcome Donald Trump’s overwhelming victories in the more rural areas of our state and win Pennsylvania. The current winning Pennsylvania Democratic coalition relies on the Philadelphia suburbs, and Madeleine Dean has proven she can win there.

Best Candidate for Republicans: Brian Fitzpatrick

Congressman Brian Fitzpatrick, a moderate Republican representing suburban Bucks County and a part of Montgomery County, would most likely be the favorite to win the seat if he were to run and win the GOP nomination. This is because he has impressed with his voting margins in the past: even though Joe Biden won his district in the 2020 election, Fitzpatrick was re-elected by a margin of 13 percentage points, outperforming Donald Trump by 18 percentage points! 

However, even though Fitzpatrick would, in my opinion, be the favorite in a general election against any Democrat, the problem for him is getting there. Fitzpatrick is one of the most moderate Republicans in Congress: he is pro-gun-control, a critic of former President Trump, and willing to break away from his party in key votes (such as his vote for the Equality Act). Thus, because of his different views from many in the Republican Party, he could find himself in trouble during the Republican Primary if he were to run for Senate, where he could be labeled a RINO (Republican in Name Only) by more “Trumpist” populist candidates. If he were to run, Fitzpatrick would need to decide whether to start voting in a more right-wing manner in order to have a chance in a Senate GOP primary, or keep his moderate appeal and maintain the bipartisan electorate that could help him in a general election.